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Defending Washington’s Environmental Efforts Using Analytics

EMC Research’s Role in Helping Clean and Prosperous Washington Defeat Initiative I-2117

Clean and Prosperous Washington, the campaign working to oppose Washington state initiative I-2117, sought advanced analytical tools to refine their voter contact strategy and prevent the measure from passing. If approved, I-2117 would have repealed the state’s cap-and-trade program, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and cut funding for critical state transportation and infrastructure projects.

In a political climate where inflation and cost-of-living concerns dominated public discourse, supporters of the initiative had a simple, direct argument for passage. However, previous research indicated that for Clean and Prosperous Washington to win, the campaign needed a data-driven, multi-layered communications plan to effectively make the case for voting “No.” EMC Research was engaged to sharpen the campaign’s understanding of the electorate, maximize the efficiency of voter outreach, and provide the research needed to guide strategic decision-making.

The Problem

With no party registration in Washington and an initiative that did not cleanly divide voters along partisan lines, Clean and Prosperous Washington needed a way to accurately segment the electorate and target campaign outreach. Existing voter scores on environmental attitudes and ideology were based on generic national data, didn’t reflect Washington attitudes, and were insufficient for an issue this complex. A new approach was required that could identify and target persuadable voters.

Additionally, Clean and Prosperous Washington was part of a broader coalition, Defend Washington, working to oppose three statewide initiatives (I-2109, I-2117, and I-2124). This required a sophisticated strategy to coordinate messaging across multiple campaigns while ensuring voter outreach remained precise and effective.

EMC Research’s Strategy

EMC Research developed a comprehensive suite of analytical tools to optimize Clean and Prosperous Washington’s voter contact strategy. This included the creation of electoral personas and nine custom predictive models designed to segment the electorate, refine targeting, and maximize the campaign’s impact.

Key aspects of our strategy included:

  • Electoral Personas: Using supervised and unsupervised machine learning, EMC Research segmented the Washington electorate into nine distinct natural groupings based on attitudes toward environmental policy and other issues relevant to the initiative. These personas became the foundation of the campaign’s research and early targeting efforts.
  • Custom Predictive Models: EMC Research created a suite of nine custom models, assigning each voter a score from 0 to 100 based on their likelihood to hold certain opinions or behaviors relevant to campaign strategy. These models included:
    • Turnout Score – Predicting the likelihood of voter participation.
    • Early Vote Likelihood Score – Identifying voters most likely to cast their ballots early.
    • Opposition to I-2117 Likelihood Scores (2 models) – Measuring a voter’s probability of opposing the initiative.
    • Persuasion Models (5 tracks) – Assessing which messages would be most effective for different voter groups.
  • Defend Washington Index: In addition to supporting Clean and Prosperous Washington, EMC Research developed a Likelihood to Oppose model for the other two initiatives and a Defend Washington Index, which assigned each voter a percentile ranking indicating their probability of opposing all three measures. This allowed the coalition to concentrate resources on voters most likely to support the entire Defend Washington slate.

By integrating these models and personas, the campaign and its allies were able to craft highly targeted voter outreach efforts, focusing on individuals most likely to oppose the initiative and identifying which messages would be most persuasive.

Our Results

Clean and Prosperous Washington’s data-driven strategy, supported by EMC Research’s analytics, led to a decisive victory, with I-2117 being defeated by a 38-62 margin. Notably, the other two initiatives in the Defend Washington slate (I-2109 and I-2124) were also defeated by 36-64 and 45-55 margins, respectively.

By leveraging advanced voter segmentation, custom predictive models, and integrated analytics, Clean and Prosperous Washington was able to target the right voters with the right messages, ensuring an effective, efficient, and successful campaign. The success of this initiative underscores the power of strategic research in shaping electoral outcomes and defending critical policy initiatives.